Modelling long-term and short-term temporal variation and uncertainty of electricity production in the life cycle assessment of buildings

The building stock is a major contributor to energy consumption and greenhouse gases emissions (GHG), which can be evaluated using life cycle assessment (LCA). Electrification of buildings, e.g. replacing fuel gas boilers with heat pumps, in order reduce these often seen as an option, but this will have short term effects by increasing peak demand, long requiring more electricity production capacities. In paper, methodology account for such interaction LCA presented. It connects three models addressing: market allocation on national scale over period, variation (i.e. seasonal, daily hourly) the mix also scale, simulation at one building. This has been applied case study including sample buildings French context, it used other countries. Six studied 100 years considering 50 transition scenarios. Results show that environmental impacts vary depending scenarios than types Marginal mixes considered consequential are mainly composed coal, gas, nuclear technology explains highest values different compared average attributional LCA. approach allows address uncertainties related production.